Kubva pakatiZvita, pave nekukwira kukuru kwemitengo yealuminium, neShanghai aluminum ichikwira ingangoita 8.6% kubva pasi pe18,190 yuan/ton, uye
Aluminium yeLME inokwira kubva pakakwirira 2,109 US madhora/tani kusvika 2,400 US madhora/tani.Kune rumwe rutivi, izvi zvinokonzerwa nemusika wekutengesa manzwiro ane tariro
nezveUS Federal Reserve's mubereko wekucheka tarisiro, uye kune rimwe divi, kwave nekukwira kwakanyanya nekuda kwekuwedzera kwemutengo-padivi mukuderedzwa kwekugadzira alumina kunowedzerwa nedambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku.Uku kusimuka kweShanghai aluminium kwaputsa kuburikidza nekushanduka
huwandu hwakaumbwa kweanopfuura gore, neLME aruminiyamu ichiratidza kusasimba kwakanyanya.Svondo rapfuura, sevamwe vagadziri vealumina vakatangazve
kugadzirwa, kurerutsa kunetsa kwekupa, ese alumina nealuminium mitengo yakawana kudzoreredzwa kudiki.
1. Bauxite ore Supply Kuperevedza Kucharamba Kuchirambidza Alumina Production Capacity Release
Panyaya yematombo emumba bauxite ore, mitengo yekushanda kwemigodhi yakadzikira muchando.Tsaona yemugodhi muShanxi pakupera kwegore rapera yakaita kuti migodhi yakawanda yemunzvimbo iyi imire
kugadzirwa kwekuongorora nekugadzirisa, pasina tarisiro yekutangisazve munguva pfupi.Mugodhi weSanmenxia muHenan haunawo kuzivisa kutangazve, ne
yakadzikira ore kubuda muPingdingshan.Kune migodhi mitsva mitsva yakavhurwa muGuizhou, uye bauxite ore supply inotarisirwa kuramba yakasimba kwenguva yakareba, iyo ichatsigira zvakasimba mitengo yealuminium.Nezve ore inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, kukanganisa kwe
kushaikwa kwemafuta ekufambisa nekuda kwekuputika kweGuinea mafuta depot kunoenderera mberi, kunyanya kuratidzwa mukuwedzera kwemitengo yemafuta kumakambani emigodhi uye kukwira kwemitengo yekutakura mugungwa.
Parizvino, inguva yepamusoro yekutakura kweGuinea ore.Sekureva kweSMM, svondo rapfuura alumina ore kutumira kubva kuGuinea kwakasvika 2.2555 miriyoni matani,
kuwedzera kwematani 392,900 kubva pavhiki yapfuura pamamiriyoni 1.8626 emamiriyoni.Mamiriro ezvinhu akaoma muGungwa Dzvuku ane mashoma maitiro ekufambisa kwealumina ore,
sezvo chikamu chemakumi manomwe kubva muzana cheChina chinotengwa nealuminium ore chinobva kuGuinea, uye zvinhu zvinobva kuGuinea neAustralia hazvipfuuri nemuGungwa Dzvuku.
Iko kukanganisa kunogona kunzwika pane chikamu chidiki chealumina ore chekufambisa kubva kuTurkey.
aluminium profileNekuda kwekushomeka kwekupihwa kwealumina ore uye zvirambidzo zvekugadzirwa kwezvakatipoteredza, pakave nekudzikira kukuru kwealumina yekugadzira simba kare.Maererano naAladdin, kubva kuChishanu chapfuura, simba rekushanda kwealumina raiva 81.35 mamiriyoni emamiriyoni, ane chiyero chekushanda che 78.7%, inooneka yakaderera kudarika yakajairika ye84-87 mamiriyoni ematani muhafu yechipiri yegore.Mitengo yeAlumina yakakwira pamwe chete nemitengo yeramangwana.Chishanu chapfuura, mutengo wenzvimbo mudunhu reHenan waive 3,320 yuan/tani, wakakwira 190 yuan/ton kubva svondo rapfuura.Mitengo yeSpot mudunhu reShanxi yakakwira ne180 yuan kusvika pa3,330 yuan/ton zvichienzaniswa nesvondo rapfuura.Svondo rapfuura, nekuvandudzwa kwemweya mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzeShandong neHenan uye nekusimudzwa kweyambiro yekusvibiswa kwemamiriro ekunze, makambani akati wandei ealuminium akatangazve kugadzira, mazhinji acho ari mabhureki aripo ekutumira.Imwe kambani hombe mudunhu reShanxi iyo yakadzikisa huwandu hwayo hwekugadzira nekuda kwematambudziko ecalcination iri kutangazve kugadzira, pamwe nemamwe makambani, izvo zvinoratidza kuti mamiriro akaomarara ealumina spot zvinhu munguva pfupi anogona kuvandudzwa.Nekudaro, dambudziko rekushomeka kweore kupihwa kuri kutarisirwa kuenderera mberi nekupa rutsigiro rwemitengo yealuminium munguva yepakati.
2. Kuwedzera Mari uye Purofiti yeAluminium Electrolysis
Panyaya yemitengo yealuminium electrolysis, kunze kwekukwira kukuru kwemitengo yealuminium, mitengo yemagetsi uye caustic soda yakaramba yakagadzikana.Mukutanga kwemwedzi, bhizinesi rinozivikanwa repamba rakadzikisa zvakanyanya mutengo waro wealuminium fluoride, izvo zvakakonzera kudzikira kwemitengo yekutengeserana mumusika wealuminium fluoride.Pakazere, SMM inofungidzira kuti pakutanga kwaNdira, mutengo wakakwana wealuminium electrolysis wakasvika 16,600 yuan patani, uchikwira ne320 yuan patani kubva kumativi 16,280 yuan patani pakati peZvita gore rapfuura.Nekukwira pamwe chete kwemutengo wealuminium electrolysis, purofiti yemabhizinesi emagetsi ealuminium yakaonawo kumwe kuwedzera.
3. Kuderera Kuduku muAluminium Electrolysis Production uye Low Inventory Levels
Sekureva kweNational Bureau of Statistics, kubva muna Ndira kusvika Mbudzi 2023, China yakawedzera kugadzirwa kwe electrolytic aluminium yaive 38 miriyoni matani, gore negore kuwedzera kwe3.9%.Zvakabuda munaNovember zvakadonha zvishoma kusvika 3.544 miriyoni matani, kunyanya nekuda kwekudzivirirwa kwemagetsi mudunhu reYunnan.Sezvakataurwa naMysteel, pakupera kwaMbudzi, China yakagadzirwa electrolytic aluminum capacity yaiva 45.0385 miriyoni matani, ine simba rekushanda re42.0975 miriyoni matani uye huwandu hwekushandisa huwandu hwe93.47%, kuderera kwe2.62% mwedzi-on-mwedzi.Muna Mbudzi, China yakaunzwa kunze kwealuminium mbishi yaive matani 194,000, zvishoma zvishoma pane muna Gumiguru, asi ichiri padanho repamusoro.
Kubva muna Ndira 5, aluminium hesiti yeShanghai Futures Exchange yaive 96,637 matani, ichienderera ichidzikira uye ichiramba iri padanho rakaderera kana ichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana mumakore apfuura.Warandi vhoriyamu yaive 38,917 matani, ichipa kumwe kutsigirwa kwemitengo yeramangwana.Kubva muna Ndira 4, Mysteel yakashuma kuti iyo yesocial inventory ye electrolytic aruminiyamu yaive 446,000 matani, 11.3 zviuru matani yakaderera pane imwecheteyo nguva gore rapfuura, zvichiratidza kuti iyo yese yepamba nzvimbo kutenderera inoramba yakasimba.Tichifunga nezvekushayiwa simba kwemashandiro epasi pamberi peMutambo weChirimo uye kudzikira kunotarisirwa kudzikira kwekushandurwa kwemvura yearuminiyamu nemabhizinesi emagetsi ealuminium, iyo aluminium ingot inventory inogona kukurumidza muhafu yechipiri yaNdira.Musi waNdira 5, iyo LME aruminiyamu inventory yakamira pa558,200 matani, yakasimudzwa zvishoma kubva pakati paDecember yakaderera, asi ichiri padanho rakaderera, yakakwira zvishoma pane imwe nguva gore rapfuura.Huwandu hwemarisiti akanyoreswa edura aive 374,300 matani, aine kukurumidza kukurumidza kudzoreredza.Iyo LME aluminium nzvimbo chibvumirano yakaona diki contango, zvichiratidza kuti nzvimbo yekupihwa haina kuratidza kusimba kwakanyanya.
4. Weakening Demand Trend Pamberi peChinese New Year
Sekureva kweSMM, mushure meZuva reNew Yeay, iyo aluminium billet inventory yakapinda mukukurumidza kuunganidza rhythm.Kubva muna Ndira 4, mudzimba aluminium rod social inventory yakasvika 82,000 matani, kuwedzera kwe17,900 matani zvichienzaniswa neChina chapfuura.Kuuya kwezvinhu zvakanyanya panguva yezororo, kuderera kwekushanda kwepasi pamberi peChinese New Year, uye kukwirira kwemitengo yealuminium iyo yakadzvanyirira kutenga kwakadzika, ndizvo zvikonzero zvikuru zvekukura kwezvigadzirwa.Musvondo rekutanga ra2024, chiyero chekushanda kweanotungamira mabhizinesi ealuminium profiles akaramba asina simba, pa52.7%, nekuderera kwevhiki-pavhiki kwe2.1%.Mamwe mareti ekugadzira mbiri yekuvaka uye maodha akadzikira, nepo achitungamira emota mbiri mabhizinesi akaramba ari pamitengo yekushanda.Musika wephotovoltaic profile wakatarisana nemakwikwi akawedzera, uye mavhoriyamu ekurongeka akadonhawo.Kubva pamaonero ekupedzisira, kuwedzera kwegore negore kuderera munzvimbo itsva yekuvaka uye nzvimbo yekuvaka kubva munaJanuary kusvika munaNovember yakaratidza kuvandudzwa kwemiganhu, asi mamiriro ekutengesa pamagumo emutengi akaramba asina simba.Muna Mbudzi 2023, kugadzirwa kwemotokari dzeChina nekutengesa kwakapedza 3.093 miriyoni uye 2.97 miriyoni zvikamu, zvichiteerana, kunyoresa gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe29.4% uye 27.4%, zvichiratidza kukurumidza kukura.
5. Zvine Hunyoro External Macroeconomic Environment
The Federal Reserve yakachengetedza chiyero chemubereko chisina kuchinjika mukati memusangano waZvita, Powell achiburitsa zvikwangwani, achiti Federal Reserve iri kufunga nekukurukura nezvekuderedzwa kwakakodzera kwemhindu, uye mukana wekuderedzwa kwemitengo wapinda mukufunga.Sezvo zvinotarisirwa zvekudzikiswa kwemitengo zvichisimba, manzwiro emusika anoramba aine tarisiro, uye hapana akakosha akashata macroeconomic zvinhu zvinotarisirwa munguva pfupi.Indekisi yemadhora ekuAmerica yakaderera pasi pezana rimwe, uye goho remuUS rakadererawo.Maminitsi kubva kumusangano waZvita akaburitswa gare gare akange asina kukahadzika semanzwiro emusangano wapfuura, uye dhata rakanaka remabasa asiri epapurazi muna Zvita rakatsigirawo pfungwa yekuti mutemo wemari ucharamba uchienderera kwenguva yakareba.Zvisinei, izvi hazvitadzisi kutarisira kwekutanga kwezviyero zvitatu zvakaderedzwa muna 2024. Pamberi peNyika Idzva yeChinese, kuderera kwechimbichimbi mune macroeconomic landscape hazvibviri kuitika.China yekugadzira PMI muna Zvita yakadonha ne 0.4% kusvika 49%, zvichiratidza kudzikira mukugadzira uye kudiwa zviratidzo.Pakati pavo, iyo mitsva yemaodha index yakadzikira ne0.7% kusvika 48.7%, zvichiratidza kuti hwaro hwekudzoreredza hupfumi hwenyika huchiri kuda kusimbiswa.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-22-2024